Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN
Composite 44/100; the shares have moved about 39% annualised. Names that move more contribute more risk for the same amount invested, and our composite reflects how strong the evidence for this one is right now.
Balance-sheet strength ranks 22/100 — a strong mark against it.
Quality ranks 66/100 — a moderate point in its favour.
Balance-sheet strength ranks 22/100 — a strong mark against it. Momentum ranks 33/100 — a moderate mark against it. Income ranks 37/100 — a moderate mark against it.
What the company does Churchill Downs Incorporated operates live and historical racing venues, online wagering platforms (TwinSpires, BetAmerica), and regional casino gaming properties across the U.S. Its segments include Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming, generating revenue from admissions, sponsorships, pari-mutuel wagers, and technology services.
Key financials Churchill Downs reports strong profitability metrics: ROE 35%, ROA 6.3%, ROCE 12.7%, and net margins of 13.2%. Revenue growth is modest at 3.1%, while EPS growth is higher at 13.4%. However, leverage is elevated with a Debt/Equity ratio of 4.38 and Net debt/EBITDA of 5.00, offset by a current ratio of 0.54.
Stock health The stock shows weak momentum, down -24.94% over 12 months and -30.13% from its 52-week high, with an RSI(14) of 42.20. Sidera’s overall score is 42.4, reflecting average quality and weak momentum (23.7), despite solid quality (59.6) and valuation (52.7) scores.
Price vs fair value Churchill Downs trades at a **PREMIUM of 34.60%** to our fair-value estimate of 54.08 and a **discount of 63.97%** to the analyst 12-month target of 135.58. - Q2 CY2026 sales met estimates but earnings missed (Zacks, 2026-07-29). - Q2 earnings call highlights focused on operational challenges (MarketBeat, 2026-07-30). - Analysts note revenue alignment but margin pressures (StockStory, 2026-07-29).
Looking forward Forward P/E of 22.94 suggests valuation concerns, while EV/EBITDA of 9.93 remains reasonable. Growth remains a question, with revenue growth at 3.1% and a high PEG of 1.69. Execution in online wagering and regional gaming will be critical for margin recovery and multiple expansion.
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Data as of 2026-09-03, compiled from third-party sources; errors and delays are possible and figures are not warranted. Investing puts your capital at risk; past performance does not predict future results. We publish our full track record, including the calls that lost, and our conflicts of interest.